Wednesday, March 5, 2008

How did they value stocks?

A good old article (from 2001, yep, 2001!!!) from Gretchen Morgenson in the New York Times discussing the ways that analysts and salesmen were trying to value stocks back in the internet bubble days. In short, because these companies weren't reporting positive earnings, folks were looking for something else to use as a valuation metric (like number of viewers, or internet clicks, or marketing expenditure). Turns out that turning a profit is still a good way to stay in business, and continuing to make losses is a good way to go out of business.

The article (page 3) also discusses the extensive use of 'pro-forma' earnings numbers being peddled by companies at the time (and it still continues).
Last para in the article reads:

Byron Wien, chief United States investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, is fearful that companies that spin their results using pro forma figures could do serious damage to investor confidence in the financial markets. "Corporations have a lot of flexibility in how they report results," he said. "Nobody knows more about the truth than the corporate executives themselves. Taking a short-term view of truth may make things look good in a quarterly report. But it will ultimately catch up with them."

That is a good description of what seems to be happening today.


And continuous today.

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